Tuesday marking exactly one week to the election saw the
release of the final batch of opinion polls. Infotrak was first
followed by Ipsos and later The Star newspaper which has
gotten into this polling game during this election cycle.
For the second time in a row, Infotrak has
found Nasa candidate Raila Odinga ahead, coming in at 49% against Uhuru’s 48%.
Both candidates have gained 2% from the last Infotrak poll released last week.
In yesterday’s poll, Infotrak found 2% to be undecided, while the rest of the
candidates would not attain 1%.
According to Infotrak, Raila is ahead in 5 former
provinces, namely Nairobi, Nyanza, Western, Eastern and Coast. Uhuru is ahead
in Central, Rift Valley and North Eastern. Though Infotrak did not release
figures adjusted after removing the undecided, Angela Ambitho stated it would
be a statistical dead heat which will go down to turn out. She ruled out the possibility
of a run-off.
A few hours later, Ipsos released their own
data, and as has been the trend in their polls, Uhuru is still leading.
From the poll, President Uhuru is ahead with 47%,
followed by Raila with 44%. From their previous poll, Uhuru has remained steady
while Raila has added 1%. According to Ipsos, 5% are undecided while 3%
‘refused to answer’.
Tom Wolf went further to break down the numbers when
the undecided are removed completely from the equation. ”Nobody votes
undecided, and on this basis Uhuru will get 52%,” he said.
This is the same number the incumbent had in their last
poll with the undecided numbers overlooked.
From the Ipsos numbers,
Uhuru is way ahead in Central, Central Rift and Upper Eastern.
Moments after the two main pollsters released their final data, The
Star newspaper came out with theirs.
From
the poll, Uhuru is ahead with 47% against Raila’s 46%. The same survey found
that 7% are yet to make up their minds.
Raila
does well among the youth age 25-29 (47%) while Uhuru is a favourite among
people age 35-39 (51%).
This
poll did give aggregated figures with undecided excluded.
In summary:
Infotrak
Raila 49%
Uhuru 48%
Undecided 2%
Raila 49%
Uhuru 48%
Undecided 2%
Ipsos
Uhuru 47%
Raila 44%
Undecided 5%
Excluding undecided: Uhuru 52%
Uhuru 47%
Raila 44%
Undecided 5%
Excluding undecided: Uhuru 52%
The
Star
Uhuru 47%
Raila 46%
Undecided 7%
Uhuru 47%
Raila 46%
Undecided 7%
